Oscar Predictions, Thoughts
By Norm Schrager at February 22, 2009 | 9:06 pm | Print
The Academy Awards are an unbelievable contradiction to movie fans. There’s conversation about thought-provoking films, exemplary acting and even movie history. And there’s near-equal attention to dresses, gowns and personal relationships.
It’s brain-frying: Some numbnuts on E! rambles on about Heidi Klum’s dress (in freeze-frame, no less), while a text scroll lists the fine screenwriters nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s like apples and hamsters.
Whether you read Film Comment or US Weekly, you know what interests you. We’ll leave it there.
OSCAR PREDICTIONS
If you have a last-minute chance to enter a pool, follow us.
:: Best Actor
Pick — Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Rourke is an incredible riches-to-rags-to-riches story (artistically, that is) and Hollywood loves that, fiction or otherwise. And remember: The Wrestler required an incredible level of physical work, and the voters love that too. Some say he’s pissed off a bunch of people in the business, but I just don’t think it’s that many people. It sounds like he knew well enough to get the hell out when he realized he’d be a “problem actor.”
If I’m Wrong — Sean Penn, Milk
Penn is usually seen as “the greatest actor of his generation,” which always works in his favor since he’s a safe vote. In Milk, he was in a real-life role (a tragic one), with a sensitive, timely subject matter, in a film that’s received far more accolades than just his.
:: Best Actress
Pick — Kate Winslet, The Reader
Everything you’ve heard is true: Yes, she’ll get it not only for the performance, but for the frustrating number of times (five) she’s been nominated and lost for solid roles. And you can look at this nomination as a nod to two performances, this one and the one in Revolutionary Road. Ricky Gervais, rejoice: It’s a winner from a Holocaust film!
If I’m Wrong — Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
If enough voters feel good about tipping the hat to a meaty performance in a more independent movie — one directed by the respected Jonathan Demme — Hathaway could be a dark horse winner.
:: Best Picture — Slumdog Millionaire
Underdog stories almost always win, and Danny Boyle’s international hit is an honest-to-goodness phenomenon. For voters, it’s nearly impossible to ignore compared to the other movies in the category: Frost/Nixon is too much of an adaptation, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is too flawed, Milk is too gay (sorry, that’s how some will see it), and The Reader is too distant (another exceptional Oscar promotion from the Weinsteins).
:: Best Supporting Actor — Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
He would win even if he were alive. I can’t imagine one voter seeing his name, knowing his work and voting for another actor. This is the lock of all locks.
:: Best Supporting Actress — Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
She’ll win based on the sheer number of critics awards she’s already snagged for her biting portrayal of a strong-yet-volatile Spanish woman. In a Woody Allen movie, no less.
Enjoy the show, which should be better than previous years, if you believe what you hear about the new producers. We’ll see you this week.
nanio, 1 year ago
Mad props to Sean Penn. I have a hard time with the thinking that this particular role made him a safe choice, particularly in post prop 8 California. Something like Mystic River was infinitely safer than Milk.
Norm Schrager, 1 year ago
@nanio
I’m not saying that Penn’s role as Harvey Milk makes him a safe choice — the fact that he’s universally regarded as one of our finest actors makes him a safe choice, regardless of the role.
No Oscar voter would feel they were doing something unconventional by voting for Penn. That’s what I meant by “safe”.